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NFL odds, picks for Week 17: Advanced computer model loving Broncos and Ravens

By the time Week 17 ends, we’ll know the complete NFL playoff picture. With 16 games on the Week 17 NFL schedule and postseason berths at stake, the NFL odds are bound to shift as kickoffs approach. The Week 17 slate concludes on Sunday Night Football with an AFC South showdown between the Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) and Tennessee Titans. Tennessee needs a victory to secure a spot in the playoffs, but could be without starting quarterback Marcus Mariota after he suffered a stinger against the Redskins. Elsewhere, the Eagles opened as 6.5-point favorites over Washington in a must-win divisional battle. With so much on the line and NFL odds and lines on the move, you’ll want to see the up-to-the-minute NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight-up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 17 on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 159-78 on the season, ranking in the top five on NFLPickWatch.com. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now it has examined the latest Week 17 NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 17 NFL picks and predictions are in. One of the top Week 17 NFL picks the model recommends: the Ravens (-6) cover the spread against the Browns as they look to wrap up the AFC North. 

Baltimore’s Week 16 win over the Chargers, coupled with the Steelers‘ loss to the Saints, put the Ravens in control of their own destiny in the division entering the final week of the regular season. Even against a much-improved Cleveland team, the model projects the Ravens roll to a decisive win that covers the spread in almost 60 percent of simulations. The Over (41) also has plenty of value because that hits in well over half of simulations.

Another one of the Week 17 NFL predictions from the model: the Broncos (+6.5) cover against the Chargers. 

Los Angeles can still win the AFC West and claim the No. 1 overall seed with a win and a Kansas City loss. The Chiefs, however, play one of the league’s worst teams in the Raiders, meaning the Chargers will likely have to settle for a wild-card spot in the AFC playoff picture, even if they’re able to knock off the Broncos. 

The model expects Los Angeles to win outright in almost 60 percent of simulations, but the Chargers will be keeping an eye on the scoreboard since the Chiefs kick off simultaneously at 4:25 p.m. ET. If Kansas City builds a substantial lead, the Chargers could pull starters. The model has accounted for that and projects Denver to cover the spread in almost 60 percent of simulations. The over (41.5) also hits in well over half the time, making that one of its NFL best bets for Sunday. 

The model also has a strong pick for the season-defining matchup between the Colts and Titans, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard this weekend, shaking up the NFL playoff picture forever.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 17? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-6.5, 41.5)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9, 44.5)
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-13.5, 45)
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-8, 44.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5, 40.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5, 51.5)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 39.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+6.5, 42)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6, 41)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5, 45.5)
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 40.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (+6.5, 41.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5, 38.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-10, 49)
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3, 43.5)

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